This episode delivers a focused analysis of the global cocoa market.

• In Ivory Coast, despite optimal growing conditions, concerns have emerged due to logistical inefficiencies and labor shortages. These issues have contributed to a 1.8% year-over-year decline in port arrivals, raising questions about harvest timing and distribution capabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for stable or increased yields remains if these barriers are addressed.
• Nigeria's cocoa output forecast for the 2025–26 season has been cut by 11% to 305,000 tons. This revision, driven by poor farming conditions and weak infrastructure, adds to global supply concerns and could support higher prices if the tightening trend persists. Ghana, similarly benefiting from favorable weather, faces comparable logistical hurdles.
• Globally, the cocoa market reflects a mix of bullish and bearish indicators. The International Cocoa Organization has reported a smaller expected surplus, and U.S. inventories have fallen to an 8.75-month low. The recent inclusion of New York cocoa in the Bloomberg Commodity Index may further attract investment, reinforcing price strength. However, weak demand trends are tempering optimism, as grind figures across Asia and Europe fall and North American chocolate sales decline.
• Finally, the European Union's postponed enforcement of its deforestation rule offers short-term supply relief but introduces uncertainty into long-term forecasts. Traders must weigh these diverse signals, with supply limitations and demand softness continuing to drive volatility in the cocoa market.

This episode explores the current state of the global cocoa market.

• Nigeria is projected to see an 11% decline in cocoa production for the 2025–26 season, bringing output down to 305,000 tons. This drop is attributed to ongoing structural challenges in cultivation and logistics. The contraction in Nigerian supply is especially notable given that United States cocoa stocks have reached an eight-month low of 1.685 million bags, further tightening the global supply outlook.
• In the Ivory Coast and Ghana, favorable growing conditions have supported cocoa pod development, yet port arrivals in the Ivory Coast fell 2.1% year-over-year to 718,451 tons. This suggests possible production or logistical issues, tempering expectations of a surplus. While balanced rainfall has aided West African production overall, the corresponding risk of oversupply has placed downward pressure on prices.
• Policy developments are also shaping the market. The European Parliament's delay in implementing the EU deforestation regulation has temporarily eased export pressures for West African producers. Meanwhile, proposed tariff adjustments in the United States on Brazilian cocoa may enhance Brazil’s competitiveness, altering global trade flows and pricing.
• Despite tightening inventories, market sentiment remains cautious. This is reflected in increased net short positions in London cocoa futures, indicating that traders are bracing for potential demand-side weaknesses. These developments illustrate the complex interplay between production trends, policy shifts, and speculative activity in determining global cocoa market dynamics.

This week’s global cocoa market report.

• The Ivory Coast is set to benefit from the European Union's delayed enforcement of its deforestation regulation, preserving market access until late 2026. While cocoa pod counts are currently 7 percent above the five-year average, port arrivals have dropped by 3.7 percent year over year, totaling 618,899 metric tons as of late November. This contrast between strong crop indicators and reduced logistical throughput highlights ongoing sector vulnerabilities.
• Ghana shares a similarly positive crop outlook, bolstered by the EU’s regulatory delay. However, declining cocoa grind rates in key consumption regions may weigh on demand for Ghanaian cocoa. Nigeria, meanwhile, is expected to see an 11 percent drop in cocoa production due to limited investment and agronomic issues. Nonetheless, broader global supply appears stable due to compensating growth in other producing countries.
• Globally, cocoa demand is under pressure. Asian grind data reveals a 17 percent decline, while Europe reports a 4.8 percent drop, both pointing to reduced chocolate production. North American markets also face weak retail sales, with notable downturns from firms like Hershey.
• On the trading front, March 2026 cocoa futures are under sustained bearish pressure, hovering near $5,050 per ton. Without consistent closes above $5,750, market sentiment remains negative, and lower support levels may be tested. Overall, while production forecasts are favorable in parts of West Africa, market direction is dominated by regulatory timing, demand softness, and technical pricing patterns.