『Cotton's Tightrope: Balancing Supply, Demand, and Hope』のカバーアート

Cotton's Tightrope: Balancing Supply, Demand, and Hope

Cotton's Tightrope: Balancing Supply, Demand, and Hope

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This is your Daily Cotton Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hey everyone, I'm Vanessa Clark, and welcome back to Daily Cotton Price Tracker. Today we're diving into what's happening with cotton prices as we head into the final stretch of 2025.

Let's get straight to the numbers. Cotton is trading at 63.85 cents per pound today. That's up just slightly from yesterday, gaining about 0.18 percent. Now, if you've been listening to this podcast, you know cotton has been on quite a journey. Over the past month, prices have dipped 0.71 percent, and compared to this same time last year, we're down about 8 percent. So there's definitely been some pressure on the cotton market.

Here's what's really interesting though. The USDA just released updated production forecasts today, and they're showing upland cotton production at 13.89 million bales. That's slightly higher than November's estimate, thanks to better yields across most states coming in at 922 pounds per acre. But here's the thing that traders are wrestling with right now: ending stocks are climbing. We're looking at 4.5 million bales, which is larger than last marketing year's final of 4 million bales. That increased supply is definitely weighing on prices.

The real story here is demand, or really, the lack of it. Export sales have been mixed at best. The latest reports show weak demand signals coming through, and mills have been rolling their purchases forward rather than committing now. That kind of hesitation tells you something about how traders are viewing the market.

Looking ahead, analysts are projecting cotton to trade around 63.62 cents by the end of this quarter. And looking further out into 2026, the estimates hover around 59.57 cents per pound. Now, some market watchers think cotton might actually be in a buy zone at these lower price levels. The reasoning goes that reduced prices will eventually slow production, decrease inventories, and increase consumer purchases, creating that perfect storm for prices to recover.

The big picture? Cotton is currently trading in what's been a narrow range all year, between 60.80 and 69.75 cents. At almost 64 cents today, we're sitting right in the middle of that range, pretty directionless. Markets are watching for big announcements, and there's a lot of macro economic data coming that could shift sentiment.

So here's my takeaway for you: the cotton market is showing signs of fundamental pressure from oversupply and weak demand, but we're at price levels that could eventually support a recovery. Keep your eyes on those export numbers and global demand signals. They'll tell you where this market is really headed.

Thanks so much for tuning in to Daily Cotton Price Tracker. Make sure you subscribe so you don't miss tomorrow's update on where cotton prices are heading. Catch you next time.

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