Federico Varese is a Professor of Criminology at the University of Oxford and a Senior Research Fellow at Nuffield College. His work focuses on organised crime as a system of governance, examining how criminal groups emerge, expand, and adapt across different societies. He has written extensively on the Russian mafia, Italian mafia groups, Somali piracy, the migration and evolution of mafia organisations, and the use of social network analysis to understand criminal behaviour. His recent projects include research on gang governance in the UK, cybercrime markets, illicit financial networks, and the global market for substandard medicines. He is the author of several books, including The Russian Mafia, Mafias on the Move, Mafia Life, and Russia in Four Criminals. Federico’s research and commentary have appeared across leading media platforms, including The Economist, the BBC, The Guardian, and The New York Times.

In this episode of Conflict, Power, and Persuasion, FedericoVarese takes us inside the hidden machinery of mafia governance; how these groups rise, rule, and reveals their negotiation and power strategies along the way.

Some topics discussed include:

• What counts as organised crime, and the three core functions these groups serve in society.
• How mafia organisations like the Ndrangheta end up performing state-like roles in protection, dispute resolution, and governance.
• The global scale of organised crime, and why tens of millions of people live under the rule of criminal governance.
• How weak justice systems, slow courts, and limited access to social services create conditions for organised crime to take hold.
• What the origins of mafia groups reveal; from shifts out of feudal systems to the shared rules and doctrines that underpin membership across cultures.
• Why effective reintegration after conflict is critical to prevent armed groups from entering into organised crime.
• What Federico’s research on mafia behaviour reveals about negotiation, from informational power and credible commitments to trust, respect, reputation, and the ways criminal groups influence others without relying solely on violence.

And much more…

Links:

Federico Varese’s Website : https://federicovarese.com/

Mafias on the Move (book) : https://www.amazon.com/dp/0691128553Mafia Life: Love, Death and Money at the Heart of Organised Crime - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0791KTC9K

Russia in Four Criminals (latest book):https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DFDPDWM7

Latin America Citizen Security Survey on
https://www.iadb.org/en/news/citizen-security-latin-america-and-caribbean

Sue Williams is one of the world’s most experienced hostage negotiators. A former senior detective at Scotland Yard, she led both the Kidnap and Hostage Crisis Negotiation Units and played a central role in the UK’s national crisis response to overseas abductions -regularly advising Prime Ministers and senior ministers during high-stakes incidents. Over her career, she has helped resolve hundreds of hostage situations - on land, at sea, and in conflict zones.Sue is an Associate Fellow at Oxford University’s Saïd Business School, where she teaches negotiation strategy through the lens of crisis negotiation. She also lectures at Harvard University and works with humanitarian actors on crisis planning and response. Awarded the Queen’s Police Medal for her service, she now advises private organizations, companies, and families navigating critical incidents such as extortion, cyber threats, and abductions.In this episode of Conflict Power and Persuasion, Sue, takes us from the front lines of international hostage cases to the world of business - revealing the deep overlap between crisis negotiation and strategic leadership.

Some topics discussed include…

• Her personal approach to preparation before entering high-stakes negotiations

• Why establishing proof of life is a critical early step

• The danger of labelling individuals as “hostages” -and the importance of humanizing them to build empathy

• How hostage negotiation dynamics have evolved, including the impact of copycat scenarios and modern communication channels• Practical strategies for de-escalation in volatile situations

• Which crisis negotiation skills translate effectively into business or workplace contexts

• The ongoing need to build and maintain trust throughout the negotiation process

• The critical role of personal security planning and mitigation training in high-risk environments

• And much more…

Links:

Pip decks Negotiation Tactics: Explore Negotiation Tactics – a deck co-developed by Sue, applying negotiation tactics to everyday decision-making.

Ken Cloke is a globally recognized mediator, dialogue facilitator, and conflict resolution systems designer with over 40 years of experience. As Director of the Center for Dispute Resolution, he specializes in resolving complex disputes across sectors, including workplace, public policy, and cross-cultural dialogues. A co-founder of Mediators Beyond Borders, Ken has worked in over 25 countries and is the author of several influential books, including Mediating Dangerously, The Dance of Opposites, and his most recent work, The Magic in Mediation. He serves as an adjunct professor at institutions such as Pepperdine and USC, holds a Ph.D. from UCLA, and is a pioneer in designing preventative conflict resolution systems. A sought-after speaker and thought leader, Ken has dedicated his career to advancing innovative, inclusive approaches to conflict resolution worldwide.

Some Topics Discussed Include:

• Murray Bowen’s Family Systems Theory: the tension between individualization and integration in resolving conflicts.
• The power of ubuntu
• Three types of questions to navigate disputes: which to embrace, which to avoid, and why they matter.
• Chaos, complexity, and phase shifts: why abandoning old notions of the world is key to resolving disputes.
• Transformation vs. transcendence: understanding the differences and how to achieve them.
• The single best question to ask when someone is angry.
• Three interest-based approaches to redefine democracy and politics.
• Mediating grief, loss, and dying
• What is an enemy?
• And much more!

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  Links:

• Ken Cloke's Website
• Ken Cloke's Books on Amazon
• Order Out of Chaos: Man’s New Dialogue with Nature was written by Ilya Prigogine and Isabelle Stengers
• Transformative Experience written by L.A. Paul
• Mediators Beyond Borders