Executive Summary

This report provides an in-depth analysis of Kalshi's prediction markets, with a focus on Denmark-related events, including the 2026 general election and potential speculation around the Danish monarchy. It expands on market mechanics, current data, and alignments with opinion polls. Additionally, it examines global leaders expected to step down by the end of 2026, drawing from recent political developments. The report also evaluates the broader role of prediction markets like Kalshi, highlighting their high accuracy in forecasting due to crowd-sourced incentives, while addressing societal drawbacks such as gambling risks, herd behavior, and potential for misinformation. Data is synthesized from Kalshi's platform, recent polls, and expert analyses as of early February 2026. Key findings include the Social Democrats' strong position in Denmark's election market (89% implied probability), no active market on King Frederik X stepping down amid Greenland tensions, and a wave of leadership changes globally, including UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and several national figures. Prediction markets outperform traditional polls in accuracy but raise ethical concerns about commodifying real-world events.

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