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Cocoa Crunch: Bean Surplus Slashed, Prices Poised to Pop

Cocoa Crunch: Bean Surplus Slashed, Prices Poised to Pop

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This is your Daily Cocoa Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hey friends, welcome back to Daily Cocoa Price Tracker with me, Vanessa Clark. Today, were diving into the latest on cocoa prices, market volatility, and what it all means for your chocolate cravings and investments.

Right now, as of this evening, cocoa futures on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York are trading around 5850 to 6050 dollars per metric tonne. Trading Economics reports it closed at 5859 dollars per tonne, down a bit today but up nearly 15 percent over the past month after surging 17 percent recently according to MarketMinute. Thats still way off the crazy 12000 dollar peaks from early 2024, but it shows the cocoa crisis is hanging on tight.

The big story is shrinking surplus forecasts fueling all this ups and downs. Citigroup just slashed their 2025-2026 global surplus estimate to 79000 metric tonnes from 134000 back in September. Rabobank cut theirs to 250000 tonnes on December 10th, blaming ongoing issues in West African production like weather woes and structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana. The International Cocoa Organization pegs the 2024-2025 surplus at only 49000 tonnes, a huge drop from earlier hopes. Plus, ICE stocks in US ports hit a nine-month low, tightening things up even more.

Looking ahead, get ready for a January effect. Cocoa joins the Bloomberg Commodity Index next year, potentially bringing two billion dollars in passive buying that could push prices toward 7000 dollars. Favorable weather in West Africa might boost yields, but flood risks and the Harmattan winds could spark more swings. Companies are eyeing cocoa alternatives and more processing in Africa to cut raw bean exports.

Her takeaway for you: If youre a chocolate lover, stock up on favorites now before prices hit your wallet harder. Investors, watch those surplus updates and index news closely, this markets primed for action. Diversify and stay informed to ride the volatility.

Thanks for joining me on Daily Cocoa Price Tracker. Subscribe, share with your cocoa-loving pals, and tune in next time for more. Talk soon!

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