We take a detour into the Dickensian in evaluating the state of the economy. First, the recent inflation print, which showed a significant decline in the level of price increases, was a fiction worthy of Dickens, with the majority of the data simply made up as a result of the government shutdown. Setting that aside, since 2021, wage growth has not kept pace with inflation for food, shelter, and services, though we can count our blessings that at least alcohol prices have not increased as much…

Challenges face the Fed chair (both current and yet to come), and managing a deteriorating labor market and persistently higher prices presents a conundrum. The Fed is simply not getting what it wants at present in terms of rate cuts translating to a lower yield on the 10-year Treasury, and with deficits soaring in spite of a growing economy, some tough choices will have to be made.

However, stocks have proven remarkably resilient, and predictions from most Wall Street firms argue for a continued move higher supported by AI, solid growth, fiscal stimulus from tax policy, and further rate cuts. However, the math is a little challenging; to cite one example:

• The S&P reaches over 7,700 by this time next year (around 13% above where we are now)
• Earnings grow around 9% (this seems achievable, and maybe even a little conservative)
• Multiples expand to 26x earnings (this would be at peak dot com levels)

We think you might get this level of earnings growth (or better), but that multiple seems a little rambunctious. Even if we do get there, expect some market shenanigans on the way, as history shows mid-term election years tend to see large drawdowns; think back no further than 2022. The average midterm drawdown is around 18%, though the range is very wide.

Will brings it home with a reading from a speech given by Scrooge's nephew Fred so we end on a positive note celebrating the season.