Why is abundant global capital is not translating into stronger productive investment, and what role the G20 can play in shaping a more resilient and sustainable capital flows framework in an increasingly fragmented global economy?

Global finance has demonstrated considerable resilience despite persistent economic uncertainty, geopolitical tension and worsening debt dynamics. Capital flows and investment remain central to economic performance - particularly in emerging and developing economies.

Yet assets held by non-bank financial institutions have expanded rapidly, reaching an estimated US$250 trillion, around 400% of GDP in advanced economies. At the same time, real investment as a share of GDP across many emerging and advanced economies has stagnated or declined since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Persistent frictions, coordination failures and mispriced risk continue to constrain capital mobilisation for productivity-enhancing investment. Closing this gap is critical for long-term growth and sustainable development.

If capital is abundant, why is productive investment lagging? And in an increasingly fragmented global economy, what role can the G20 play in shaping a more resilient and sustainable capital flows framework?

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Ali Cakiroglou, Director of Emerging Markets Research, HSBC
• Marcello Carvalho, Former Global Chief Economist, BNP Paribas
• Phyllis Papadavid, Senior Research Fellow, International Economic Development Group, ODI Global

Related resources

• Towards a G20 framework for capital flows to EMDEs: informing the UK Presidency (Expert comment, ODI Global)
• The case for a G20 liquidity shield amid geoeconomic fragmentation (Expert comment, ODI Global)