Big Prediction Market Ghost Orders Scandal and How One Market Maker Beats Every Exchange
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Polymarket had a rough week — and Chris and Henry break down both stories. First: ghost orders Then: their CMO was caught on a live stream nearly whispering something to a popular streamer before realizing he was on camera — a clip that went viral for all the wrong reasons.
Also, Max Shen-Molesky of Coinflip Capital joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Max has quietly become one of the most dominant liquidity providers on prediction markets today — in both crypto binaries and sports. He breaks down his thesis that every market is effectively the same if you understand order books, how he made most of his early sports PNL in the first two months with zero competition, the wildest manipulation story you'll hear this year, and the most expensive bugs that have cost him.
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This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.
Chapters:
0:00 – Ghost Orders
2:00 – PM CMO Caught on Live Stream
4:20 – PM Oracle Contraversy
7:40 – Max Shen-Molesky Joins the Show
15:00 – Where Max Makes His Money
18:30 – Can You Manipulate Crypto Binary Markets?
24:00 – Why Every Market Is the Same
35:00 – The Strategy That Keeps Winning
51:00 – Most Expensive Mistake
#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting