**BETA FINCH PODCAST SCRIPT - MERCK Q4 2025 EARNINGS**
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**ALEX:** Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown where we cut through the noise to bring you what really matters from corporate America's quarterly reports. I'm Alex.
**JORDAN:** And I'm Jordan. Today we're diving into Merck's Q4 2025 earnings - and folks, this one's got some really interesting moving parts.
**ALEX:** Before we jump in, I need to mention that this podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
**JORDAN:** Absolutely. Now Alex, let's start with the headline numbers because Merck delivered some solid, if not spectacular, results.
**ALEX:** Right, so Q4 revenue came in at $16.4 billion - that's 5% growth year-over-year, or 4% if you strip out foreign exchange impacts. But what's really interesting here is the story behind these numbers.
**JORDAN:** Exactly. Keytruda, their blockbuster cancer drug, continues to be the workhorse with $8.4 billion in sales, up 5%. But here's what caught my attention - CEO Rob Davis mentioned they now see a path to over $70 billion in potential commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s. That's $20 billion more than just a year ago!
**ALEX:** That's a massive increase in their pipeline projections. And Jordan, this gets to the heart of what investors are really worried about with Merck - what happens when Keytruda loses patent protection?
**JORDAN:** Bingo. The so-called "patent cliff." But here's where it gets interesting - Davis dropped some news about potentially extending Keytruda's protection. They have additional patents that could push the loss of exclusivity from December 2028 out to May or even November 2029.
**ALEX:** That's huge if it holds up. An extra year of Keytruda exclusivity could be worth billions. But let's talk about some of the challenges they're facing. Gardasil, their HPV vaccine, saw sales drop 35% to $1 billion, largely due to lower demand in China and Japan.
**JORDAN:** Yeah, that's a significant headwind. And looking at their 2026 guidance, they're projecting pretty modest growth - just 1% to 3% revenue growth to between $65.5 and $67 billion. That includes dealing with about $2.5 billion in headwinds from generic competition and pricing pressures.
**ALEX:** Speaking of 2026, there's this massive one-time charge of about $9 billion related to their acquisition of Sidera Therapeutics. This deal is all about MK1406, a potentially first-in-class flu prevention drug.
**JORDAN:** This acquisition really stood out to me. Management thinks MK1406 has greater than $5 billion in revenue potential. It's designed as a long-acting antiviral that could prevent influenza in high-risk individuals - basically a once-per-season shot instead of the traditional annual flu vaccine approach.
**ALEX:** The timing is interesting too, given we're in the middle of what seems to be a pretty severe flu season. Dr. Dean Li, their R&D chief, mentioned they've completed enrollment in the Northern Hemisphere for their Phase 3 trial and are now enrolling patients in the Southern Hemisphere.
**JORDAN:** Let's pivot to some of their other growth drivers. Winrevair, their pulmonary arterial hypertension drug, continues to impress with $467 million in global sales. They had over 1,500 new patients start treatment in the U.S. alone this quarter.
**ALEX:** And they just launched Ohtuvayre for COPD after acquiring Verona Pharma. That brought in $178 million in just part of the quarter. These respiratory drugs are clearly becoming a key growth pillar for Merck post-Keytruda.
**JORDAN:** What I found fascinating in the Q&A was the discussion around their HIV programs. They have this two-drug combination that showed non-inferior results to the standard three-drug regimen. Dr. Li was particularly excited abou
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2026/02/221 分