Investors have short memories—until the talk of a “bubble” resurfaces. We take investors on a quick trip down memory lane, discussing the infamous dot-com bubble of the late ‘90s and early 2000s, as well as the housing bubbled that appeared a few years later. These bubbles were fueled by sky-high optimism and wild speculation about transformative technologies. In the dot-com era, investors rushed into any company with a “.com” at the end of its name, confident the internet would change the world. But not all of these companies survived. The lesson is that when a game-changing technology new technology appears, you still have to do your due diligence to come out on top. [bctt tweet="AI stocks are the new #investing gold rush…but are you panning for gold or about to hit a bust? I break down the REAL risks of betting big on #tech giants—and why most #investors miss what matters in a bubble" username="wellensscott"] The Age of AI: Bubble or Breakthrough? The “Magnificent Seven” (Google, Meta/Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft) are pouring billions into AI. Their 2025 returns, as catalogued by Scott Wellands, were impressive, with the group averaging over 20%, outperforming the S&P 500. Yet, such meteoric rises echo the euphoria of past bubbles. But excitement alone doesn’t make a bubble—overvaluation does. Valuation: How Expensive is Too Expensive? A key measure is the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, a classic way to judge if a company’s stock price is justified by its profits. Take Tesla, for example: at the end of 2025, it traded at roughly $450 per share but earned only $1.50 per share, putting its P/E near 304. Compared to Toyota’s P/E of about 10, that’s nosebleed territory. The S&P 500’s long-term average P/E sits around 20—a point of reference emphasizing just how stretched AI-heavy stocks may be. The Magnificent Seven’s average P/E now hovers around 68, more than triple the broader market’s historic average and well above the S&P’s “other 493” companies. While high valuations don’t guarantee a crash, they signal that expectations are sky-high and that disappointment could be costly. Picking Winners, Dodging Losers You can’t invest in AI itself; you invest in companies riding the AI wave. History shows many won’t make it. That’s why betting everything on a few horses is extremely risky, even if their role in AI seems promising today. Over-concentration lurks as a hidden threat. If you own a standard S&P 500 index fund, 35% of your portfolio sits in the Magnificent Seven. For tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, that figure climbs to 54%. A stumble for these stars—already started in early 2025—can spell big trouble for portfolios tied too closely to their fortunes. [bctt tweet="No one has a crystal ball for the next #AI bubble—but family stewards can stack the odds. I reveal three ways to build #wealth using AI safely—and why a diversified #portfolio is your family’s best hope for lasting wealth" username="wellensscott"] The Case for Global Diversification So how can investors harness AI’s upside without exposing themselves to catastrophic risk? In a portfolio spanning thousands of companies worldwide across different sectors and asset classes, your exposure to the Magnificent Seven (and thus to AI) drops to about 20%. This cushions your wealth from the fallout if today’s leaders falter and gives you a stake in the next wave of winners, wherever they arise.
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