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Backtest

著者: Daniel Gamboa Matt Harris
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Learn from market history

www.backtestpodcast.comDaniel Gamboa
世界 個人ファイナンス 経済学
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  • The Dot Com Boom: A Tale of Two Telecoms (Part 2)
    2025/10/07

    In the late 1990s, the internet grew exponentially to become an enormous engine for technological progress and economic disruption.

    The existing telecommunications infrastructure was designed to carry voice and television signals—not data packets. The system needed billions of dollars in fiber and copper to support the tidal wave. Telecom entrepreneurs, incumbent executives and capital markets were eager to invest capital and ride the boom.

    In this episode, we tell the parallel rise (and unraveling) of two giants who tried to wire the future from opposite ends of the network.

    On one side: John Malone, the genius capital allocator behind TCI, stitching together last-mile cable systems and striking the blockbuster sale to AT&T in 1999 as the industry chased an “integrated provider” vision after the ’96 Telecom Act.

    On the other: Bernie Ebbers of WorldCom, an acquisition machine that vaulted from discount long-distance reseller to national carrier—fueled by a once-accurate-later-obsolete statistic implying “internet traffic doubles every 100 days,” a meme born at UUNet and soon echoed by CEOs, analysts, and even the U.S. Commerce Department.

    We follow the capex arms race, Williams’ ingenious move to pull fiber through abandoned pipelines, the strategic missteps at AT&T, and the line-cost KPIs that nudged WorldCom across the line from pressure to fraud.

    Along the way, we draw out lessons for investors and operators that resonate in today’s AI boom.

    Chapters

    (01:15) The meme that sparked the boom

    (04:00) Market structure for telecom in the 1990s

    (10:01) Huge capital expenses

    (11:16) Opportunity space for entrepreneurs

    (12:59) Introducing Bernie Ebbers and John Malone

    (18:02) The invention of EBITDA

    (20:18) Everything changes in ‘95 and ‘96

    (26:50) LDDS becomes WorldCom—a top long-distance carrier

    (31:20) TCI becomes a top cable company

    (35:14) Prices down in long-distance telephone & last-mile assets become very valuable

    (37:24) TCI acquired by AT&T

    (39:10) Contrasting dot com vs telecom financing

    (43:23) AT&T-TCI merger challenges & WorldCom earnings down

    (52:02) Aftermath for John Malone and Bernie Ebbers

    (55:53) Lessons learned and applications to today

    References

    Cable Cowboy: John Malone and the Rise of the Modern Cable Business (link)

    Born to Be Wired: Lessons from a Lifetime Transforming Television, Wiring America for the Internet, and Growing Formula One, Discovery, Sirius XM, and the Atlanta Braves by John Malone (link)

    Extraordinary Circumstances: The Journey of a Corporate Whistleblower by Cynthia Cooper (link)

    Boom and Bust in Telecommunications by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (link)



    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.backtestpodcast.com
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    1 時間 1 分
  • The Dot Com Boom: Netscape Lights the Fuse (Part 1)
    2025/09/25

    Description

    Gold-rush energy meets browser wars.

    In mid-1994 Silicon Graphics legend Jim Clark sits down with a 22-year-old programmer Marc Andreessen in the heart of Silicon Valley. Clark, a rebellious hardware icon trying to reinvent himself, and Andreessen, fresh off building the first web browser, bet that the browser will be the operating system to the open web.

    Their new company races from zero to market share dominance, forcing Microsoft’s “tidal wave” pivot. They turn their IPO into a marketing weapon on August 5, 1995 when Netscape goes public without profits—and the stock soars—sending a blaring signal to founders, VCs, and retail investors that the internet era (and a historic boom) has begun.

    Along the way, we unpack how Clark helped flip Silicon Valley’s power dynamics in favor of founders and engineers, and why Netscape’s triumph—and ultimate fate—should shape how we navigate today’s AI cycle.

    Chapters

    (00:18) Introduction

    (01:13) The Tidal Wave Memo

    (03:45) Microsoft’s Dominance in the 1990s

    (06:40) The Origin Story of Netscape

    (16:55) Who Was Jim Clark?

    (18:34) The University of Utah as the Epicenter of Graphics Technology in the 1970s

    (29:35) Jim Clark Changes the Game

    (34:03) Netscape Shapes the Web

    (36:31) Microsoft Responds

    (38:20) The Mental Model of Dominating Operating Systems

    (41:00) Why Was Netscape the Spark and Not Spyglass?

    (42:17) Netscape’s IPO and the Macro Environment

    (49:00) The Boom Starts

    (50:25) Lessons from the Netscape Era

    (52:24) Was Netscape Ultimately Successful?

    References

    The New New Thing by Michael Lewis (link)

    Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages by Carlota Perez (link)

    Marc Andreessen on Inventing The Internet Browser (link)



    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.backtestpodcast.com
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    58 分
  • The Nixon Shock: Connally’s Bold Move (Part 3)
    2025/08/21

    A run on the dollar, stagflation, and an election on the line—Part 3 wraps up the series with President Nixon’s shocking announcement to shut the gold window… a move that changed the monetary system forever and signaled the beginning of the end for the perception of gold as money. We meet John Connally, the swaggering Democratic governor of Texas who rode in the car with JFK when he was shot, and later became Nixon’s Treasury Secretary. He was the political closer tasked with averting a global monetary crisis and more importantly, securing Nixon’s re-election in 1972.

    In the summer of 1971—with inflation rising, unemployment hovering near 6%, and foreign central banks suggesting they might convert dollars into gold—Connally, only months into the job, worked with Paul Volcker and others on a plan to fix the economy.

    During an intense weekend at Camp David, Connally orchestrated consensus around a plan that included wage and price controls, a 10% universal tariff on imports, and most importantly, the suspension of dollar-gold conversion. These policies were sold as temporary and forced a global realignment.

    At 8:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, August 15, 1971, Nixon announced the New Economic Policy to the world and kicked off a series of events that led to the monetary system we have today.

    Chapters

    (00:20) Connally’s 4 No’s Speech

    (02:00) Gradualism & Stagflation

    (04:26) Whispers of Global Monetary Crisis

    (05:52) The Nixon Doctrine

    (07:30) Introducing John Connally Jr.

    (14:18) How Connally Gets on Nixon’s Radar

    (15:47) Moving Away from Gradualism

    (17:27) The Potential for a Run on the Dollar

    (24:50) Camp David Economic Meetings Coordinated by Connally

    (30:05) The British Allegedly Want to Redeem $3 Billion in Gold

    (33:07) Policy Change Decisions at Camp David

    (39:23) Nixon’s Speech Shutting Gold Window

    (40:15) The Immediate Domestic Reaction of the Speech

    (42:39) The Foreign Reaction to the Speech

    (46:08) Smithsonian Agreement in December 1971

    (47:56) By March of 1973 Bretton Woods Is Dead

    (49:30) Why Did We Not Have Another Bretton Woods Agreement?

    (52:10) Similarities and Differences to What’s Happening Today

    References

    Three Days at Camp David: How a Secret Meeting in 1971 Transformed the Global Economy by Jeffrey E. Garten (link)

    Nixon's Economy: Booms, Busts, Dollars, and Votes by Allen J. Matusow (link)

    https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/



    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.backtestpodcast.com
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    57 分
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