Hear Argus’ essential analysis of the what’s driving Australia’s phosphate market, focusing on the impact of the Middle East conflict, current market dynamics, Australian’s phosphate projects, import trends, how Argus’ weekly MAP 10-50 fca Geelong price assessment has reacted and Australian market sentiment on next season.

Join Tom Hampson, Global Editor – Phosphates and Susy Cornford, Market Reporter – Fertilizers as they discuss these topics in the latest episode of Argus' Fertilizer Matters podcast series.

Key questions answered in this podcast:

• How are the fundamentals of the Australian phosphate market developing?
• What changes have there been around Phosphate Hill?
• What are the latest updates on Australian phosphate projects including PRL's Ardmore site, Avenira, Ammaroo, and Northwest Phosphate?
• Australia is also a significant importer of phosphates - how are imports looking so far this year?
• How significant is the impact of the US-Iran war?
• Has Argus’ weekly MAP 10-50 fca Geelong price assessment reflected the global price trend?
• What is Australian sentiment on next season?

Related links

• Argus Phosphate price reporting service | More info | Request trial
• More information: Phosphate short and mid to long-term outlook services
• Free newsletter sign up: Argus Fertilizer Market Highlights
• Fertilizer Matters podcast series

In this episode, George Maher-Bonnett (Deputy Editor — European Products Report) is joined by Atishya Nayak (Senior Gasoline Reporter - European Products Report) and Jide Tijani (Naphtha Reporter — European Products Report) to examine how the US driving season and the US–Iran conflict are influencing gasoline and naphtha markets in Europe — from exports and arbitrage shifts to blending economics and supply disruptions.

Key themes

• Price swings: Gasoline–naphtha spread jumped to $270/t in May, a three‑year high
• European exports to US hit an 11‑month peak as freight costs collapsed
• Drivers of volatility: US–Iran conflict, summer‑grade transition and rebound in ARA blending

Outlook risk: Tighter VGO supply, weak West African pull and narrowing US arb

In this episode of Driving Discussions, Argus editors Jared Ainsworth, US gasoline editor, and Stephanie Crawford, associate editor and US Atlantic coast gasoline reporter, analyze how the US–Iran conflict has rapidly reshaped gasoline fundamentals ahead of the summer driving season. What began as a well-supplied market has tightened significantly, with exports rising, imports lagging, and regional imbalances emerging across key hubs. The discussion unpacks the evolving impact on pricing, flows, and blending behavior across US gasoline markets.

Key Takeaways

• Tightening supply:S. gasoline inventories fell more than 16% since late February, signaling a sharper-than-normal seasonal draw.
• Global pull on barrels: Strong export demand—up ~32% vs. the five-year average—has redirected Gulf Coast supply into international markets.
• Shifting regional balances: Early Atlantic Coast tightness gave way to late-spring oversupply as imports and pipeline flows rebounded while demand lagged.
• Policy impacts: Jones Act and EPA waivers reshaped flows and blending dynamics, with limited Northeast relief but increased Gulf Coast-to-West Coast shipments.
• Atypical pricing signals: RBOB spreads widened despite regulatory flexibility, reflecting stricter blending behavior and altered summer demand patterns.

Stay ahead of evolving gasoline market dynamics with Argus’ expert analysis on pricing, flows, and regulatory impacts shaping the summer 2026 outlook.