Are You a Wizard or a Prophet? The Mental Model I Use to Underwrite Every Deal | Ep 317
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In this episode, a Texas parcel bought at roughly $3,000 per acre (inclusive of value-add) shows how fast a buyer's market can reprice, with the exit assumption sliding from an underwritten $5,500 to $6,000 per acre to a $5,000 listing that still barely draws a bid. That same parcel would underwrite closer to $4,000 per acre today, a 20% to 30% drop in under two months. Charles Mann's "The Wizard and the Prophet" supplies the lens, contrasting innovation that pushes past limits against caution that respects them.
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