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US-China relations show promising signs with a potential trade agreement in the works and Beijing issuing a formal state visit invitation to Trump. South China Morning Post reports final stages of negotiations that could include bulk purchases of American soybeans by year-end.

• Secretary Rollins confirms farmer aid package being considered to address cash flow problems
• Funding options include Commodity Credit Corporation, tariff revenue, and Section 32 funds
• NCGA survey shows 80% of farmers point to a farm crisis with significant economic concerns
• CRP enrollment nearing statutory limit of 27 million acres with 25.8 million currently enrolled
• Supreme Court to hear arguments on Trump's tariff authority beginning November 5
• EPA expected to release ag-friendly Waters of the US definition and re-approve Dicamba with restrictions
• Potential government shutdown could impact agricultural reports and services
• Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points with more cuts expected this year

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Tommy and Jim analyze the latest USDA crop production report, which shows a surprising planted acreage of nearly 96 million corn acres. Despite yield reductions, this led to increased projected production and complex market reactions.

• Corn prices closed up 10.5 cents despite bearish USDA news, with soybean prices also strengthening
• The cash flow crisis facing farmers in areas without river markets or ethanol plants requires governmental support
• Interest rates are expected to be cut by 25 basis points at the September 17 FOMC meeting, with economists projecting 75 basis points in cuts by year-end
• The Japan trade agreement has been misinterpreted - it doesn't include an additional $8 billion in US farm product purchases
• California's approval of E15 ethanol blends opens a significant market opportunity by 2026
• Regulatory hurdles for US farm equipment manufacturers create higher costs compared to identical equipment sold in South America
• Farm Bill 2.0 may address issues like California's Proposition 12 affecting pork producers
• The second Maha report avoided mentioning pesticides, but concerns remain about upcoming definitions of "ultra-processed foods"

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Tom Grisafi and Don Wick provide an on-the-ground report from the Big Iron Farm Show, addressing challenging market conditions for farmers while highlighting resources and upcoming speakers at the event.

• Basis levels are "pretty ugly" in the region with a negative $2 basis making even optimistic price projections like $12 beans insufficient for profitability
• Input costs remain stubbornly high despite commodity price decreases, creating a profit squeeze for producers
• Approximately 100 million bushels of grain storage was lost in North Dakota due to a derecho wind event, complicating harvest decisions
• Land values are holding steady despite market challenges, described as experiencing a "soft landing" rather than a crash
• Young farmers face particular challenges entering agriculture, raising concerns about potentially losing another generation from the industry
• The show features panels on weather, tax planning, market outlook, and special appearances including FSA Administrator Bill Beam
• Despite current hardships, farmers maintain generational optimism with a long-term perspective that helps weather difficult periods

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Trade wars and policy shifts create mounting pressure on US agricultural exports, while domestic utilization initiatives offer glimmers of hope for struggling farmers. Congress returns with growing awareness of the cash flow crisis in agriculture, as industry leaders debate the potential need for another economic aid package.

• US agricultural trade deficit widens to $47 billion, with USDA forecasting $41.5 billion for next fiscal year
• China's boycott of US soybeans significantly impacts grain-producing regions like North Dakota
• USMCA talks begin, with Mexico remaining a top export destination despite trade tensions
• California approves E15 ethanol, potentially boosting demand by 600-800 million gallons
• Farm income appears artificially high due to $40 billion in government assistance payments
• RFK Jr.'s food policy initiatives create controversy in congressional hearings
• Japan agrees to increase rice quota by 75% and purchase $8 billion in US agricultural commodities
• US market share in global agricultural trade for key commodities continues declining trend
• Fed expected to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points on September 17th
• Supreme Court appeal of tariff ruling could have significant implications for trade policy

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Tom Grisafi and Don Wick discuss a week of significant agricultural developments spanning crop conditions, market movements, and political upheaval. The contrast between potentially record-breaking yields and challenging economics highlights the complex reality facing today's farmers.

• Don's crop tour revealed surprisingly good conditions in northern regions with corn reaching 215 bushels/acre near the Canadian border
• Western North Dakota appears "grass green" when typically burnt up this time of year
• Farmers face storage challenges and poor basis despite good yield potential
• Federal Reserve independence questioned after White House attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook
• Cattle markets continued strong performance while grain markets rebounded despite bearish USDA estimates
• Potential "bridge payment" mentioned by USDA official Steven Vaden to help struggling farmers
• Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford's editorial sounds alarm about farm economy
• Congress returning after recess with "skinny farm bill" potential

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We tackle the severe cash flow crisis American farmers are experiencing despite billions in government aid. Current assistance programs cover only a fraction of losses, with soybeans facing nearly $2 per bushel shortfalls and aid offsetting just 37%.

• Farmers will need another economic assistance package by year-end through either Congress or USDA
• The Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) needs replenishment to function as USDA's financial resource
• Three solutions identified: targeted trade deals, expanded food aid, and developing new uses for crops
• Mexico's screwworm outbreak shows 53% increase since July, now threatening to approach US border
• USDA sending teams to verify containment efforts as ranchers warn Texas infestation could cost $1.8B
• Agricultural exports forecast improved but still showing deficit for third straight year
• New tariffs on India (50%) and Brazil (50%) creating trade tensions and higher beef prices
• USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins actively advocating for farmers at cabinet meetings
• Congressional agenda includes appropriations, Farm Bill 2.0, and potential early payments for 2025 crops
• USDA reorganization aims to relocate staff closer to agricultural communities despite DC resistance

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The stark contrast between all-time stock market highs and multi-year lows in agricultural commodity prices creates significant challenges for farmers despite good-looking crops in the field.

• Soybean basis running $1.50-1.60 under futures prices in some areas with warnings of potential "no bid" situations
• Zero soybean sales to China as American Soybean Association urges administration to prioritize soybeans in trade negotiations
• Secretary of Agriculture acknowledges farm economy stress while USDA implements risk management program changes
• Canada removes some regulatory tariffs on US goods while maintaining auto, steel and aluminum tariffs
• CME Group partners with FanDuel, potentially creating betting markets on agricultural metrics like crop yields
• Cattle markets reach record highs while wheat faces poor basis and demand challenges
• Big Iron Farm Show scheduled for September 9-11 in West Fargo featuring market analyst discussions

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www.agbull.com 1-855-737 FARM

Farmers across the US are facing their worst cash flow crisis since the 1980s as grain prices plummet while input costs continue to rise. The situation is creating a growing divide between established producers who can weather the storm and younger farmers who may not survive financially.

• North Dakota and Texas farmers experiencing "no bid" situations for soybeans and sorghum
• USDA announcing a top-up payment for the ECAP program within 45 days
• Potential for advanced 2025 crop payments to provide crucial cash flow relief
• Farm Bill 2.0 facing political hurdles but gaining momentum in Congress
• Year-round E15 authorization could eventually increase corn demand by 450 million bushels
• Brazilian soybeans flooding into China while American farmers struggle to find markets
• Labor shortages and rising costs creating additional pressure on farm operations
• Regulatory relief and immigration reform critical for agricultural sustainability
• Farmers watching for potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September

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Thank you, Tommy G