The U.S.–China tariff war didn't just disrupt trade; it forced a "structural decoupling." With agricultural exports to China collapsing by over 70%, U.S. producers face a "broader yet thinner" reality, gaining volume in new markets but sacrificing profitability.

In this episode, our AI hosts, Alice and James, break down how the U.S. China tariff escalation triggered a sharp contraction in key export categories and why much of the lost market share is likely permanent even if some tariffs ease. They explain how China replaced U.S. volume through diversification, pre-buying, and domestic security policies, and why non tariff barriers like sanitary standards and import licensing can create long term commercial lockouts for regulated products. They then map the U.S. export response, including where diversification worked, where it failed to replace China’s scale, and why byproducts like hides and offal are uniquely hard to redirect without rebuilding downstream ecosystems. Finally, they cover the tariff revenue paradox and the limits of short term aid, and close with a practical mandate for executives to build a dual track supply chain.

• (00:00) - Tariffs trigger structural decoupling and a new trade architecture
• (03:46) - The shift was strategic and policy driven
• (06:55) - U.S. export diversification and the new winners and losers
• (09:40) - The tariff revenue paradox and limits of aid
• (11:36) - Potential reintegration and what it means for stakeholders

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