We keep talking about artificial intelligence as if the breakthrough will be a cleaner model, a smarter reasoning engine, a prettier interface, a new trick that makes the machine sound more human. That’s the wrong focus. The change that bends history isn’t a clever response in a chat window. It’s persistence. It’s integration. It’s memory that doesn’t reset. It’s a system that stops being a tool you consult and becomes the environment you live inside.
I’m not arguing whether this is good or bad. I’m arguing that it will happen because it can happen, and because the incentives to make it happen are stronger than the incentives to stop it. If something can be done at scale, it will be done at scale. Not because it’s moral. Because it works. Because it creates advantage. Because advantage is the only ethics that survives competition.
People want to frame the future as a choice between utopia and dystopia. But the future rarely arrives as a manifesto. It arrives as a feature update. It arrives as convenience. It arrives as a reduction in friction so small you barely notice what you traded away. It arrives as “help” that becomes infrastructure, and infrastructure that becomes power.
The simplest truth is also the hardest to face: someone always decides. This isn’t paranoia; it’s a human invariant. Wherever there is leverage, humans compete for it, formalize it, defend it, and eventually call it normal. Power concentrates because concentration is efficient. Control consolidates because consolidation reduces uncertainty. And uncertainty is what humans, institutions, and states cannot tolerate for long.