#226 - I Knew It All Along: The Trap of Hindsight Bias in Investing
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#226 - I Knew It All Along: The Trap of Hindsight Bias in Investing
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We’ve all said it before: “I knew that stock was going to crash.” Or “Of course interest rates had to go up.” But did we really know? Or are we falling into one of the most common behavioral finance traps: hindsight bias.
In this episode of Horizon Advisers Unleashed, Alex and Andrew break down why our brains love to trick us into believing the past was predictable, how this false sense of certainty fuels overconfidence, and the costly mistakes it can cause in investing. From market bubbles to economic shocks, hindsight bias shapes the way we look at history — and unfortunately, how we try to predict the future.
You’ll learn:
- Why hindsight bias makes investing seem easier than it really is.
- How “I knew it all along” thinking leads to overconfidence and regret.
- Practical steps to avoid hindsight traps and stick to a solid investment process.
By the end, you’ll see why the smartest investors don’t try to predict the past or the future — they focus on making sound, repeatable decisions today.