2026.01.19 – Single Family Market Update: Trump talks institutional buyer ban, rates stay low, builders cautious
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2026.01.19 – Single Family Market Update: Trump talks institutional buyer ban, rates stay low, builders cautious
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ナレーター：
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著者：
概要
- Mortgage rates dipped to 6.04%, the lowest since mid-October, tracking a pullback in the 10-year Treasury rather than Fed policy
- Mortgage spreads compressed to 1.4–1.5%, below historical norms, limiting downside unless Treasury yields fall further
- Rates now sit below the 2024 average, but normalization in spreads could cap further declines even with stable bonds
- NAHB builder sentiment rose to 47, the highest since April, signaling stabilization but not a return to expansion
- Regional builder data shows the South and West under the most pressure, reflecting oversupply risk and affordability constraints
- Existing home sales fell to a 4.09M annualized pace, marking the weakest two-year stretch since the mid-1990s outside COVID
- Inventory remains the binding constraint at just 3.3 months of supply, suppressing transaction volume despite demand
- Proposal to restrict institutional SFR purchases introduces new political risk, likely targeting large firms rather than small landlords
- Reduced institutional participation could ease competition for acquisitions but also impact liquidity and lending appetite
- MBA purchase applications down 13% YoY, signaling buyer demand remains soft heading into what is typically the spring ramp
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