202. The US Power Industry Mismatch: Large Load Growth vs. Investment Capital - Nov25
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202. The US Power Industry Mismatch: Large Load Growth vs. Investment Capital - Nov25
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They explore why U.S. energy market signals are failing to support new capacity investments, despite soaring demand (especially from datacenters). Key issues include misaligned pricing, liquidity constraints, and hedging challenges, all of which deter long-term private capital.
Key Takeaways: Current price signals don’t support investment in new generation, even as large load growth (e.g., datacenters) is accelerating. Market structures must evolve to better reflect long-term price signals and attract private capital. Supply-side issues: New natural gas peakers and battery storage (BESS) face fragmented development, rising CAPEX, procurement delays, and tariff risks. Industry response: Major consolidation in the IPP space—private equity-backed assets are being acquired by integrated players seeking scale for hyperscaler deals.
Possible solutions may include Repricing of forward curves, Government-backed long-term contracts, Regulatory reforms, Technological advancements Bottom line: Something must shift—be it policy, pricing, or tech—to align investment incentives with future demand growth. The next several years should be great for traders in the middle of the action.
Conclusion: Between the Large Load Growth and the Investment Capital, who will blink first?
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Bryan Long is an Executive Director in JPMorgan’s Commodities Group, focused on wholesale power & renewable energy transactions. With 20yrs+ experience across various U.S. Power trading, origination and management roles, he has deep understandings of electricity market structures.
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