A US-Iran ceasefire is now in effect. Trump has declared Iran's ten-point peace plan workable. But is this peace — or just a pause? In this episode of The Voices of War, military strategist and counterinsurgency expert Dr. David Kilcullen breaks down the Iran ceasefire, the Iran war's real strategic logic, and whether the Iran peace plan can survive contact with reality.

With 90% of Iran's navy reportedly destroyed and US strikes degrading Iranian air defenses, the Iran-US war appeared to be going Washington's way. Then came the ceasefire. Dr. Kilcullen — former advisor to General Petraeus during the Iraq surge and author of The Accidental Guerrilla and The Dragons and the Snakes — delivers a sober verdict: the ceasefire is fragile, the ten-point plan is largely incompatible with US and Israeli objectives, and the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most consequential bargaining chip in the Iran-Israel war.

We go deep on the Iran sanctions calculus, the US-Israel relationship and whether Washington can actually "leash Tel Aviv," Iran's asymmetric resilience and information warfare, the China-US power shift, and what the rupture of the current world order means for NATO, AUKUS, and Australia's strategic future.

A ceasefire is not a victory. A ten-point plan is not a political settlement. And a two-week pause in a conflict this complex is not the end of anything — it's the beginning of the hardest part.

🎙️ Guest: Dr. David Kilcullen — military strategist, author, former senior advisor to the US State Department and General Petraeus.