10.4M BTC Underwater, 13-Day ETF Bleed & the Leverage Cascade
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10.4M BTC Underwater, 13-Day ETF Bleed & the Leverage Cascade
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(00:01:11) Thirteen-Day ETF Outflow Streak
(00:02:07) Arthur Hayes De-Risks on Macro
(00:02:54) HYPE ETF Inflows and the Yield Shift
(00:03:35) Leverage Cascade and What Comes Next
(00:04:14) Key Watchpoints
More than 10.4 million Bitcoin are currently underwater — over half of circulating supply sitting at a loss. Historically, crossing the 10 million threshold in Supply In Loss has marked cycle floors, as seen in 2018 and 2022. But today's circulating supply exceeds 21 million coins, compared to 17–19 million in those prior cycles. The relative weight of that signal has shifted, and that distinction matters before drawing any conclusions.
Set against that on-chain reading, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total redemptions reaching $4.4 billion. BlackRock's IBIT accounts for over $3.3 billion of that alone. ETF outflows don't just reflect sentiment — they remove a structural buyer from the spot market. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 through this period, BTC dominance climbed to 58%, and the Altcoin Season Index dropped to roughly 40. This is not a rotation. It's a broad defensive move.
Arthur Hayes' fund Maelstrom exited its entire HYPE position — roughly $18 million — citing geopolitical energy shocks, a wave of incoming tech IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic absorbing institutional liquidity, and a macro risk window through September. Meanwhile, Bitwise, Grayscale, and 21Shares collectively pulled in over $150 million into HYPE-linked ETFs offering native staking yields — a product category a spot Bitcoin ETF structurally cannot replicate.
Single-day liquidations exceeded $1.3 billion, the sharpest deleveraging event of this cycle. The key watchpoints now: whether ETF outflows stabilise past the two-week mark, whether Supply In Loss plateaus or climbs further, and whether the tech IPO calendar starts visibly absorbing capital. The data hasn't resolved the tension between exhaustion and continuation — but when it does, it'll show up in the flows first.
This episode includes AI-generated content.
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