Audible会員プラン登録で、12万以上の対象タイトルが聴き放題。

  • The Signal and the Noise

  • Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
  • 著者: Nate Silver
  • ナレーター: Mike Chamberlain
  • 再生時間: 16 時間 21 分

聴き放題対象外タイトルです。Audible会員登録で、非会員価格の30%OFFで購入できます。

無料体験で、12万以上の対象作品が聴き放題に
オフライン再生可能
プロの声優や俳優の朗読も楽しめる
Audibleでしか聴けない本やポッドキャストも多数
無料体験終了後は月会費1,500円。いつでも退会できます。
『The Signal and the Noise』のカバーアート

The Signal and the Noise

著者: Nate Silver
ナレーター: Mike Chamberlain
¥ 2,100で会員登録し購入

無料体験終了後は月額¥1,500。いつでも退会できます。

¥ 3,000 で購入

¥ 3,000 で購入

下4桁がのクレジットカードで支払う
ボタンを押すと、Audibleの利用規約およびAmazonのプライバシー規約同意したものとみなされます。支払方法および返品等についてはこちら

批評家のレビュー

"One of the more momentous books of the decade." (The New York Times Book Review)

"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise.... Lively prose - from energetic to outraged...illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics...[the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen...even the noise makes for a good read." (New York Times)

"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction - without academic mathematics - cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." (New York Review of Books)

あらすじ・解説

Updated for 2020 with a new Preface by Nate Silver.

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good - or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary - and dangerous - science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential listen.

©2012 Nate Silver (P)2012 Penguin Audio

The Signal and the Noiseに寄せられたリスナーの声

カスタマーレビュー:以下のタブを選択することで、他のサイトのレビューをご覧になれます。