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The Sceptical Investor

How contrarians bet against the market and win - and you can too

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The Sceptical Investor

著者： John Stepek
ナレーター： Thomas Cassidy
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Everyone wants to be a contrarian investor.

From the hedge funds who bet against the US housing market in the run up to 2008, to George Soros's billion-dollar bet against the Bank of England in 1992, some of the most famous and most profitable trades in history have been contrarian calls.

And with the relentless growth of passive investing – investors blindly following the market – the opportunities for a smart investor to profit by betting against the crowd should be greater than ever.

Yet being a contrarian is hard work.

It takes patience, the conviction to stand by an unpopular viewpoint, and the mental toughness to endure being 'wrong' for prolonged periods of time. Standing out from the crowd goes against our every natural instinct.

Which is, of course, why it works.

So how do you go about it? There is no single, mechanical investment approach that marks an investor out as a contrarian. Instead, you need to adopt a sceptical mindset: a flexible mode of thinking that allows you to stand back and spot when the market's view of the world is badly out of touch with reality – and the best way to profit when reality eventually reasserts itself.

In The Sceptical Investor, John Stepek, executive editor of MoneyWeek, pulls together the latest research on behavioural finance, and examples from well-known contrarian investors, to offer practical techniques to help you to spot opportunities in common investment situations, from turnaround plays to bubbles and busts, that others in the market miss.

It won't make you popular and it won't make you famous. But it will make you money.

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批評家のレビュー

Packed with practical behavioural advice ... I recommend it without reservation. (Tim Price, bestselling author of Investing Through the Looking Glass)
John has been writing about investing, and meeting with the key characters in the investment world, for over 15 years. You'll want to read what he has to say very carefully - and make sure that anyone managing your money reads it too. (Merryn Somerset Webb)
John is one of Britain’s foremost financial writers and in this entertaining book he wants you to know why an understanding of human behaviour is an important part of any investment process. Knowing when to resist the siren voice of the crowd is one of the great challenges of investing. The book is packed with information about why the most comfortable investments are rarely the most profitable. (Alaisdair McKinnon; Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer, Manager The Scottish Investment Trust PLC)
Highly recommended. (Paul Summers, The Motley Fool)
I've read John Stepek's work for over a decade now and have come to learn that when I see his byline, I know what follows will have been well considered and researched and thoughtfully communicated in an effort to genuinely help the reader become a better investor. The Sceptical Investor is case in point. If you're new to investing, the book provides an excellent overview of how you should mentally and emotionally approach investing. It's not just about running numbers on a spreadsheet or going against the grain. John smartly identifies the flaws in pure 'contrarian' investing and instead offers a more balanced and nuanced 'sceptial' mindset that will better serve investors over time. Learning that pure contrarianism doesn't work can take a new investor years and many losses to figure out. John's book will help you minimize your time on that troublesome path. If you're an experienced investor, John's book offers both fresh ideas around how to structure your process and serves as a reminder for the correct frameworks for approaching investing. Most investing books designed for individual investors are either too basic to be valuable to experienced investors or too advanced and scare off new investors. John has a knack for writing in a way that serves both groups. The Sceptical Investor is written in plan language, yet that does not come at the cost of insightful and useful commentary. This is the sign of a first rate investment thinker and John fits that mold indeed. (Todd Wenning, CFA and senior investment analyst at Ensemble Capital)
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