
The Black Swan, Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"
Incerto, Book 2
カートのアイテムが多すぎます
カートに追加できませんでした。
ウィッシュリストに追加できませんでした。
ほしい物リストの削除に失敗しました。
ポッドキャストのフォローに失敗しました
ポッドキャストのフォロー解除に失敗しました
聴き放題対象外タイトルです。Audible会員登録で、非会員価格の30%OFFで購入できます。
-
ナレーター:
-
Joe Ochman
このコンテンツについて
The Black Swan is a stand-alone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible”.
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility”, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book - itself a black swan.
Includes a bonus pdf of tables and figures.
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“The most prophetic voice of all.” (GQ)
Praise for The Black Swan:
“[A book] that altered modern thinking.” (The Times, London)
“A masterpiece.” (Chris Anderson, Editor-in-chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail)
“Hugely enjoyable - compelling...easy to dip into.” (Financial Times)
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
©2010 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (P)2018 Random House Audioこちらもおすすめ
-
Fooled by Randomness
- The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- 著者: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- ナレーター: Sean Pratt
- 再生時間: 10 時間 3 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
-
The Almanack of Naval Ravikant
- A Guide to Wealth and Happiness
- 著者: Eric Jorgenson, Tim Ferriss
- ナレーター: Vikas Adam
- 再生時間: 4 時間 53 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
Naval Ravikant is an entrepreneur, philosopher, and investor who has captivated the world with his principles for building wealth and creating long-term happiness. The Almanack of Naval Ravikant is a collection of Naval’s wisdom and experience from the last 10 years, shared as a curation of his most insightful interviews and poignant reflections. This isn’t a how-to book, or a step-by-step gimmick. Instead, through Naval’s own words, you will learn how to walk your own unique path toward a happier, wealthier life.
-
-
excellent
- 投稿者: Brack 日付: 2024/03/12
著者: Eric Jorgenson, 、その他
-
The Martian
- 著者: Andy Weir
- ナレーター: Wil Wheaton
- 再生時間: 10 時間 59 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
Six days ago, astronaut Mark Watney became one of the first people to walk on Mars. Now, he's sure he'll be the first person to die there. After a dust storm nearly kills him and forces his crew to evacuate while thinking him dead, Mark finds himself stranded and completely alone with no way to even signal Earth that he’s alive - and even if he could get word out, his supplies would be gone long before a rescue could arrive. But Mark isn't ready to give up yet.
-
-
Project Hail Maryの後では物足りなかった
- 投稿者: K 日付: 2025/04/12
著者: Andy Weir
-
The Book of Why
- The New Science of Cause and Effect
- 著者: Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie
- ナレーター: Mel Foster
- 再生時間: 15 時間 14 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
著者: Judea Pearl, 、その他
-
48 Laws of Power
- 著者: Robert Greene
- ナレーター: Richard Poe
- 再生時間: 23 時間 6 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
Amoral, cunning, ruthless, and instructive, this piercing work distills 3,000 years of the history of power into 48 well-explicated laws. This bold volume outlines the laws of power in their unvarnished essence, synthesizing the philosophies of Machiavelli, Sun Tzu, Carl von Clausewitz, and other infamous strategists. The 48 Laws of Power will fascinate any listener interested in gaining, observing, or defending against ultimate control.
-
-
Great
- 投稿者: sina 日付: 2024/08/08
著者: Robert Greene
-
The Laws of Simplicity
- Design, Technology, Business, Life
- 著者: John Maeda
- ナレーター: Nick Podehl
- 再生時間: 2 時間 44 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
Finally, we are learning that simplicity equals sanity. We’re rebelling against technology that’s too complicated, DVD players with too many menus, and software accompanied by 75-megabyte “read me” manuals. The iPod’s clean gadgetry has made simplicity hip. But sometimes we find ourselves caught up in the simplicity paradox: we want something that’s simple and easy to use, but also does all the complex things we might ever want it to do.
-
-
Simplicity and simple way of life being the best
- 投稿者: シンプルイングリッシュの村上博昭 日付: 2022/11/12
著者: John Maeda
-
Fooled by Randomness
- The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- 著者: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- ナレーター: Sean Pratt
- 再生時間: 10 時間 3 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
-
The Almanack of Naval Ravikant
- A Guide to Wealth and Happiness
- 著者: Eric Jorgenson, Tim Ferriss
- ナレーター: Vikas Adam
- 再生時間: 4 時間 53 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
Naval Ravikant is an entrepreneur, philosopher, and investor who has captivated the world with his principles for building wealth and creating long-term happiness. The Almanack of Naval Ravikant is a collection of Naval’s wisdom and experience from the last 10 years, shared as a curation of his most insightful interviews and poignant reflections. This isn’t a how-to book, or a step-by-step gimmick. Instead, through Naval’s own words, you will learn how to walk your own unique path toward a happier, wealthier life.
-
-
excellent
- 投稿者: Brack 日付: 2024/03/12
著者: Eric Jorgenson, 、その他
-
The Martian
- 著者: Andy Weir
- ナレーター: Wil Wheaton
- 再生時間: 10 時間 59 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
Six days ago, astronaut Mark Watney became one of the first people to walk on Mars. Now, he's sure he'll be the first person to die there. After a dust storm nearly kills him and forces his crew to evacuate while thinking him dead, Mark finds himself stranded and completely alone with no way to even signal Earth that he’s alive - and even if he could get word out, his supplies would be gone long before a rescue could arrive. But Mark isn't ready to give up yet.
-
-
Project Hail Maryの後では物足りなかった
- 投稿者: K 日付: 2025/04/12
著者: Andy Weir
-
The Book of Why
- The New Science of Cause and Effect
- 著者: Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie
- ナレーター: Mel Foster
- 再生時間: 15 時間 14 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
著者: Judea Pearl, 、その他
-
48 Laws of Power
- 著者: Robert Greene
- ナレーター: Richard Poe
- 再生時間: 23 時間 6 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
Amoral, cunning, ruthless, and instructive, this piercing work distills 3,000 years of the history of power into 48 well-explicated laws. This bold volume outlines the laws of power in their unvarnished essence, synthesizing the philosophies of Machiavelli, Sun Tzu, Carl von Clausewitz, and other infamous strategists. The 48 Laws of Power will fascinate any listener interested in gaining, observing, or defending against ultimate control.
-
-
Great
- 投稿者: sina 日付: 2024/08/08
著者: Robert Greene
-
The Laws of Simplicity
- Design, Technology, Business, Life
- 著者: John Maeda
- ナレーター: Nick Podehl
- 再生時間: 2 時間 44 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
Finally, we are learning that simplicity equals sanity. We’re rebelling against technology that’s too complicated, DVD players with too many menus, and software accompanied by 75-megabyte “read me” manuals. The iPod’s clean gadgetry has made simplicity hip. But sometimes we find ourselves caught up in the simplicity paradox: we want something that’s simple and easy to use, but also does all the complex things we might ever want it to do.
-
-
Simplicity and simple way of life being the best
- 投稿者: シンプルイングリッシュの村上博昭 日付: 2022/11/12
著者: John Maeda
-
Project Hail Mary
- 著者: Andy Weir
- ナレーター: Ray Porter
- 再生時間: 16 時間 10 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
Ryland Grace is the sole survivor on a desperate, last-chance mission - and if he fails, humanity and the Earth itself will perish. Except that right now, he doesn't know that. He can't even remember his own name, let alone the nature of his assignment or how to complete it. All he knows is that he's been asleep for a very, very long time. And he's just been awakened to find himself millions of miles from home, with nothing but two corpses for company.
-
-
聴き取りやすい。
- 投稿者: coins 日付: 2025/04/12
著者: Andy Weir
-
聴く歴史・戦国時代『“本能寺の変”で光秀が犯した失敗』〔講師〕加来耕三
- 著者: 加来 耕三
- ナレーター: 加来 耕三
- 再生時間: 1 時間 2 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
【内容紹介】戦国史ファンならずとも聴きたい一枚。明智光秀が織田信長を自害に追い詰めた本能寺の変。しかしそこで、光秀が犯した失敗があった―。日本史に精通した加来耕三氏の語りが、聴衆を戦国時代へと誘う。【講師紹介】歴史家 加来耕三- 1958年、大阪府生まれ。「歴史研究」編集委員、日本歴史学界委員などを務める。著書に『真説 日露戦争』『痛快ニッポン商人道』など多数。
-
-
つまらない
- 投稿者: Amazon カスタマー 日付: 2024/08/20
著者: 加来 耕三
-
Winning the Loser's Game
- Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing, Eighth Edition
- 著者: Charles D. Ellis
- ナレーター: Andrew B. Wehrlen
- 再生時間: 6 時間 37 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
Candid, short, and accessible, Winning the Loser's Game walks you through the process of developing and implementing a powerful investing strategy that generates solid profits year after year. In this eagerly awaited new edition, Charles D. Ellis applies the expertise developed over his long, illustrious career. This updated edition includes: new chapters on bond investing, how investor behavior affects returns, and how technology and big data are challenging traditional investment decision; and more.
著者: Charles D. Ellis
-
リスクテイクの経済学
- 気鋭の学者と現場で探る、賢いリスクの選び方
- 著者: アリソン・シュレーガー, 中口 秀忠
- ナレーター: 辻 留奈
- 再生時間: 10 時間
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
実例をベースに、リスクの取り方の原則を提示 ビジネスや投資で避けて通れない「リスク」。その本質や正しいマネジメント法について、経済学者アリソン・シュレーガーが社会の現場で探
-
-
自分はなにが欲しいのか?
- 投稿者: mk 日付: 2025/02/28
著者: アリソン・シュレーガー, 、その他
-
生の短さについて 他2篇
- 著者: セネカ, 大西 英文
- ナレーター: 原田 晃
- 再生時間: 7 時間 48 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
生は浪費すれば短いが、活用すれば十分に長いと説く『生の短さについて』。心の平静を得るためにはどうすればよいかを説く『心の平静について』。
-
-
やくちゅう
- 投稿者: 米蔵もん。 日付: 2022/04/10
著者: セネカ, 、その他
-
議論の極意 どんな相手にも言い負かされない30の鉄則
- 著者: 紀藤 正樹
- ナレーター: デジタルボイス
- 再生時間: 3 時間 19 分
- 完全版
-
総合評価
-
ナレーション
-
ストーリー
厄介な相手に振り回されない最強スキル!近頃SNSなどを見ていると、声が大きい人、相手を言いくるめるのが上手い人が発言力を増しているように思われる。「声が大きい方が勝ち」「言い負かした方が勝ち」――それは間違いである。
-
-
勉強になりました
- 投稿者: Amazon カスタマー 日付: 2024/08/29
著者: 紀藤 正樹
批評家のレビュー
“Engaging.... The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.” (The New York Times Book Review)
“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne.... We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.” (The Wall Street Journal)
“The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.” (Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate)
“Idiosyncratically brilliant.” (Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times)