CLARITY Act at 48%: Senate Math, SEC Backup Plan & RLUSD at $800M
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CLARITY Act at 48%: Senate Math, SEC Backup Plan & RLUSD at $800M
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(00:00:48) CLARITY Act August 7 Deadline
(00:01:42) Ethics Fight and Trump Disclosure
(00:02:35) Ripple MiCA License and EU Expansion
(00:03:03) RLUSD Growth and XRP Fee Demand
(00:03:56) What to Watch Next
The CLARITY Act is in serious trouble. Prediction market odds for passage this year have dropped from 74% to 48%, and the math underneath Galaxy Digital's more optimistic 60% estimate is just as concerning. Republicans need seven to nine Democratic crossovers in the Senate, and three politically charged disputes — Trump's ethics clause, Section 604 law enforcement language, and stablecoin yield provisions — remain unresolved with only 20 working days before the August 7 recess deadline.
Meanwhile, the SEC has made its contingency plan official. Chair Atkins' verbally floated July 2026 target is now formally locked into the agency's updated regulatory agenda. If Congress fails to deliver, the SEC's own framework — covering DeFi safe harbors and tokenized securities exemptions — becomes the default regulatory environment. Markets haven't fully priced this scenario yet.
On the Ripple side, two significant developments. First, Ripple secured full CASP authorization under MiCA from Luxembourg's regulator, unlocking regulated crypto payments across all 30 EEA countries — a window that only 210 of 1,200-plus applicants cleared. Tether was delisted from EU exchanges after failing to comply.
Second, RLUSD supply on the XRP Ledger has reached $800 million, up from $20 million just six months ago. Monthly XRPL transactions are running between 600,000 and 1.1 million, and RLUSD now accounts for 12% of XRPL trading volume. Payment platform Nuvion just added RLUSD integration. Every transaction consumes XRP in fees — quiet, organic demand that hasn't yet moved price, but is building.
This episode includes AI-generated content.
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