Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.

Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, talks to Foreign Affairs about American competitiveness, creative disruption, and why he runs into the office every morning.

The coming revolution in genetic engineering will be exciting to some, frightening to others, and challenging for all. If not adequately addressed, it will also likely lead to major conflict both within societies and globally.

Washington’s current efforts to resolve the conflict in Syria will not break the stalemate. The only way to restore peace without committing U.S. troops is to build a new Syrian army capable of defeating both the Assad regime and the extremists.

Commercialization and globalization, coupled with a decline in U.S. Defense spending, have ushered in a new era for the U.S. Defense industry. The Pentagon is off to a slow start, however, in weathering the current transition.