Is America drifting into another war it can’t win?

I’m in Washington DC speaking with Jacob Heilbrunn about the Iran conflict, the limits of American power, and what this moment means for global order.

We get into why the idea of an “imminent” Iranian nuclear threat has persisted for decades without materialising, what he calls “permanent imminence,” and why Iran may have more leverage than Washington expected. Jacob argues this war was supposed to last days, but is now stretching into months, exposing the reality that the United States cannot simply dictate outcomes in the Middle East.

We also discuss the domestic political consequences. This is an unpopular war, inflation is rising fast, and fuel prices are becoming a direct political liability for Trump. With the 2026 midterms approaching, what looked like a loss of the House is now expanding into a real risk to the Senate. At the same time, the MAGA coalition is beginning to fracture, particularly between those who supported Trump to end foreign wars and those backing this escalation.

The conversation then turns to alliances and strategy. What does this mean for NATO? For Australia? And what happens when America signals that it may not always show up for its allies, while still expecting them to fall in line?

Finally, we look at the economic consequences. Oil is feeding directly into inflation, pushing up costs across the economy and raising the risk of a broader global shock if the conflict continues.

This is a conversation about war, power, and what happens when strategy collides with reality.

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